The market analyzes the current situation, development and development trend and market demand of China's natural gas distributed energy market in 2016

  • 中国产业信息网
  • 2016-09-08 16:12:49

Distributed energy refers to the system in which the energy system is arranged in small scale, small capacity, modularized and decentralized, which can transmit cold, heat and electric energy.

Distributed energy sources including solar energy, wind energy, fuel cell and gas heat and cold a variety of forms such as electricity trigeneration, including gas cold heat power trigeneration because of its efficient utilization of traditional energy, promote the advantages of energy saving and emission reduction, it has been widely used worldwide."

The natural gas era is driving some of the development of distributed energy technologies.

The widespread use of natural gas and the increasing density of natural gas network have created excellent opportunities for natural gas distributed energy system.

In 2000, the global investment in distributed energy equipment reached $30 billion, and distributed energy capacity increased by 47GW per year, accounting for 21% of the global increase in power generation.

By 2012, the annual increase of distributed energy generation capacity rose to 142GW, accounting for 39% of the increase in the global production capacity.

Distributed energy investment increased to $150 billion.

Distributed energy is expected to continue strong growth, ge predicts 2020, the addition of the distributed energy generation capacity will increase to 200 gw a year, for distributed energy technology investment will reach $205 billion.

Distributed energy technology originated in the United States.

In 1978, the United States began to develop small thermal power generation, and gradually moved towards the cold and heat power supply.

By 2010, there were more than 6,000 distributed energy stations in the United States, with a total installed capacity of 92 million kW, accounting for 14% of the nation's electricity generation.

The distributed energy project in the United States is dominated by the natural gas distribution, and the generating capacity of the heat and power generation combined with natural gas is 73 percent of the total installed capacity of the combined heat and electricity generation.

Distributing energy station in the United States government to increase the development and utilization, to set up investment tax credit, simplify examination and approval, support grid, such as supporting policies, and in 1999 put forward of the distributed energy creative "and the distributed energy programme in 2020, clearly put forward the years 2020 to 50% now of new commercial buildings and 15% of the existing commercial architecture with distributed cogeneration".

In 2013, Germany's distributed natural gas generated nearly 80TWh, making it the first of the 27 eu countries.

Germany's distributed energy has a leading position in Europe, with a relatively large proportion of the small thermal power supply equipment (mCHP) that is fuelled by natural gas.

German support for mCHP policies embodied in many aspects: 1) the mCHP sell electricity to execute "preferential price" to the public power grid: mCHP 10 years after put into operation, benefit is in accordance with the law to 5.11 euro cents per kilowatt-hour.

In addition, due to the power transmission costs of mCHP, the electricity reward is 0.15~0.55 euro per kilowatt hour.

2) if mCHP is more than 70% energy efficiency per year, you can enjoy tax refund, with 0.55 euro per kilowatt hour;

3) in order to speed up the market introduction of 50 kW mCHP equipment, the environment ministry will provide the financial support of 4 million euros during 10 years, for the initial 4 kW power generation, a 1550 euro/kW subsidies, subsidies on 25 kW ~ 50 kW, 50 euro/kW.

By the end of 2012, Germany's small type heat and power generation project had capacity of more than 2.4 million kilowatts, and the government would invest 30,000 projects by 2020, with a total installed capacity of 2768 mw.

Under the new policy, the government expects to double the amount of gas distributed by 2020, to 25% of the country's total electricity generation.

In 2013, Denmark's natural gas distribution accounted for 51% of the country's total electricity generation.

Since 1990, there has been no increase in the capacity of large condensing power plants in Denmark, and the new electricity generation mainly relies on distributed power stations (thermoelectric stations) and renewable energy projects.

Denmark for distributed energy has adopted a series of clear and encourage policy, has formulated the heating method, the electricity act and the act of the national natural gas supply, etc., in the law has been clear about the protection and support.

The power supply law requires grid companies to give priority to the purchase of electricity generated by heat and electricity generation, and consumers have a duty to use the power generated by heat and electricity.

As of the end of 2014, our country has built and being built gas distributed energy projects installed capacity of 3.8 GW (including projects have been completed, 82, 22 under construction project, the construction project of 53), compared with the national power in proportion to the total installed size 1360.2 GW is only 0.28%, far lower than Europe and the United States, but also because of this huge market space.

Natural gas distributed energy projects in China are mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, guangzhou and other big medium city, the distributed energy system of a typical area of guangzhou university city project, building distribution type energy system including Shanghai pudong international airport energy center, Shanghai huangpu district central hospital, etc.

2020 capacity planning according to the country, in the next five years natural gas distributed energy investment scale is about 225 billion yuan: natural gas distributed energy projects by the end of 2014 the national total installed capacity of 3.8 GW, and the government planning natural gas distributed energy total installed capacity of 50 to 2020 gigawatts (GW), gap of about 45 GW, the current natural gas distributed energy projects investment unit price 5 million yuan/MW, so between 2016 and 2020 natural gas distributed energy projects with a total investment of 225 billion yuan.

Under the state council development research center, institute of resources and environmental policy written in "China's gas clean energy development report 2015, by 2020 China's natural gas consumption of up to 400 billion cubic meters, in the primary energy consumption accounted for more than 10%.

Among them, the city gas is 104 billion cubic meters (26%), industrial fuel materials 156 billion cubic meters (39%), generating gas is 92 billion cubic meters (23%), chemical gas is 48 billion cubic meters (20%).

Assuming power gas 60% distributed project for natural gas and natural gas in 92 billion square square/gas use for 2 million MW unit, the 2020 natural gas distributed energy installed capacity of 27.6 GW, to be installed capacity of 23.8 GW in the next five years.

Assuming that the investment of natural gas distributed energy project is about 5 million yuan/MW, the estimated investment of natural gas distributed energy in 20162020 is 119 billion yuan.

At the beginning of the 21st century, China's economic level rose rapidly, and the demand of natural gas market increased continuously.

With supply driven and price driven, national consumption of natural gas rose from 30.2 billion cubic meters in 2002 to 188.4 billion cubic meters in 2013, an average annual growth rate of 16.10 percent.

Since 2014, the domestic natural gas market has seen a sharp decline, falling to 9.58 percent in 2014 and 4.5 percent in 2015, a far cry from the annual average of 16 percent in 2002-13.

Natural gas industry development slowed Low is mainly caused by a slowdown in demand and price comparison relations deteriorated, the specific reasons include: 1) China's economic growth began to slow in 2014, the transformation of economic structure faces, gas industry and power growth slowing dramatically, lead to natural gas demand growth slowed sharply;

2) as alternative energy, price comparison is essential to natural gas development.

Gas city gate prices rose 36 per cent on average between July 2013 and the end of last year.

Meanwhile, the spot price of brent crude oil fell from $103 a barrel to $48 per barrel, a drop of more than 53%.

Qinhuangdao port power coal (Q5500) market price was reduced from 600 yuan/ton to 375 yuan/ton, a reduction of 37.5 percent.

As the cost of alternative energy has decreased, the economic advantage of natural gas has been weakened, resulting in a decline in the willingness of enterprises to use gas.

3) because our country with a long cycle for natural gas price adjustment, the natural gas price and alternative energy prices can be collected, it is difficult to reflect the body of the price fluctuation in the alternative energy and gas market supply and demand and price balance.

China's energy structure has long been dominated by coal, and the consumption of natural gas is far below the world average.

Less than 6.3 percent in 2014, 10 percent in 2020 and 13 percent in 2030. The gap is still wide from the current average of 24 percent worldwide.

As the world's third largest natural gas consumer, China's natural gas consumption per capita is only 123 cubic meters per person, far lower than the global average of 452 cubic meters per person, more than 1265 cubic meters per person in OECD countries.

In the next 10 to 20 years, as the most realistic, economical, and large-scale promotion of clean energy, the natural gas market has great development space.

For a long time, "price, supply and monopoly" are the three bottlenecks that restrict the development of natural gas in China.

The future (1) as the price of natural gas is changed, the price of natural gas will enter the downward channel, and the relationship will gradually improve.

(2) with the increase of import gas, the natural gas market has been transformed from supply and demand to supply and demand.

(3) with the promotion of market-oriented reform and the opening up of the industrial chain to private enterprises, the supply subject of the natural gas market will be more diversified and stimulate the vitality of the industry.

Looking ahead, the international energy agency (IEA) is optimistic about the need for domestic natural gas.

Although subject to economic growth is slowing, the IEA in the mid 2015, natural gas market report think down the price of natural gas and stricter environmental protection will make China's natural gas demand in five years to maintain compound average annual growth of around 10%, and amount of gas demand is expected in 2020 China will reach 315 billion cubic meters.